Izbrane teme sodobne fizike in matematike

A model of indirect effect of vaccination

This paper presents a mathematical model to explain the rise in congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) cases following partial vaccination. Starting from the classical SIR model, we extend it by incorporating age structure using the McKendrick model and renewal theory. We derive an age-structured epidemic model with vaccination and define a reproduction number suited for this framework. Our analysis shows that insufficient vaccination shifts the average age of infection, increasing the risk to women of childbearing age.

Model posrednega učinka cepljenja

V članku predstavimo matematični model, ki pojasni porast primerov kongenitalnega sindroma rdečk (CSR) po delnem cepljenju. Izhajamo iz klasičnega SIR-modela, ki ga razširimo z vpeljavo starostne strukture s pomočjo McKendrickovega modela in teorije obnove. Dobimo starostno strukturiran epidemiološki model s cepljenjem ter opredelimo reprodukcijsko število, prilagojeno temu okviru. Analiza pokaže, da nezadostna precepljenost pomakne povprečno starost okužbe navzgor in s tem poveča tveganje za ženske v rodni dobi.

avtor: Gaja Jamnik
številka: 2
letnik: 12

PDF (0.4 Mb)

Vsi članki iz te številke

© 2025 Fakulteta za matematiko in fiziko Univerze v Ljubljani

Članke, objavljene pred septembrom 2025, lahko obiskovalci berejo, brskajo in/ali prenesejo za osebno in nekomercialno uporabo. Te vsebine je prepovedano reproducirati, spreminjati, prilagajati, objavljati ali prodajati brez pisnega soglasja avtorja članka in nosilca avtorskih pravic v citatu. Članki, objavljeni septembra 2025 in kasneje, so objavljeni pod licenco CC BY 4.0 oziroma izjemoma CC BY SA 4.0. Informacije o licenci so navedene v člankih.

For articles published before September 2025, readers may view, browse, and/or download material for temporary copying purposes only, provided these uses are for noncommercial personal purposes. That material may not be further reproduced, distributed, modified, adapted, published, or sold in whole or part, without prior written permission frm the author and copyright owner as cited. Articles published in September 2025 and later are instead provided under the terms of the CC BY 4.0 or CC BY SA 4.0 licenses. License information is available in each article.